Edge Betting

NFL edges on FanDuel lines

How to read this page
  • The big number is my model's estimate of the chance the bet wins, out of 100. It is an estimate, not a promise.
  • FanDuel −430 is FanDuel's price. ≈ −430 is an alternate line priced from FanDuel's main line, so check the app for the exact number.
  • The squares are this season, game by game: green it would have hit, red it would have missed.
  • ★ Edge (green card with a star) means my chance is at least 5 points higher than FanDuel's price, the matchup is not tough, and the player has done it in most of his recent games. Cards without the star are priced about right or worse.
  • Injuries change my rating for a bet, but never its edge, because FanDuel already prices injuries into its odds. They matter most for spreads, moneylines and totals when a quarterback or several key players are out.
  • Matchup comes from ESPN: who covers the player, the line play, and Mike Clay's grade.
  • Games shows every game: its lines, best bets, over/unders, and every player you can bet on. Top bets lists everything scored 60 and up.
90+ Top rated · 80s Likely · 70s Good chance · 60s Fair · 50s Toss-up · <50 Long shot

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